How the forecast is actually built
No step here requires reading Python to understand. The calculation chain is fixed by the model; the drivers hanging off it come from adidas AG’s own configuration, which is where a client’s economics live. The model is authoritative — this page is a window into it, not a separate description of it.
What this model can answer
Before the numbers are worth arguing about, the model has to be able to say who owns each driver, how far it could plausibly move, and what level would be worth a conversation. Most planning models cannot, and that is a finding rather than an obstacle to one.
adidas's planning model answers all 11 questions this diagnostic asks: every driver carries an owner, a plausible range and a stated firmness, and every tolerance carries a question and an owner.
- Do the drivers have a named owner?5 of 5 drivers
- Is it stated whether management can move each driver?5 of 5 drivers
- Is the firmness of each assumption stated?5 of 5 drivers
- Is a plausible range declared for each driver?5 of 5 drivers
- Is the origin of each assumption recorded?5 of 5 drivers
- Is each assumption explained in a sentence?5 of 5 drivers
- Are management tolerances defined?4 tolerances defined
- Does each tolerance carry a question and an owner?4 of 4 carry both
- Is the materiality threshold justified?stated
- Are there scenarios beyond the plan?4 beyond the plan case
- Can the forecast be tested against what happened?outturn available
This reads the planning model's own completeness, not the quality of the finance function. A driver with no named owner may be one nobody needs to own — the readout says what is absent and why the field exists, and stops there.
Calculation chain
The chain is fixed by the model. The drivers to its right are adidas’s own, and change with the planning model.
- Revenue growth
- EBITDA margin
- Effective tax rate
- Working capital
- Capex
Where the data comes from
The contract this model expects from any source system, and how adidas’s figures resolve to it. No connector is implemented — what is real here is the shape the mapping would take.
date · entity · business_unit · region · account · metric · actual · budget · forecast
| Metric | Source | Statement | Basis |
|---|---|---|---|
| net sales | group.{year}.net_sales | Income statement | reportedDisclosed directly as net sales. |
| ebitda | group.{year}.ebitda | Income statement | reported |
| operating profit | group.{year}.operating_profit | Income statement | reported |
| operating working capital pct | group.{year}.operating_working_capital_pct | Balance sheet | reportedDisclosed as a percentage of net sales, not as a euro balance. |
| capex | group.{year}.capex | Cash flow statement | reported |
| free cash flow | — | Derived | derivedadidas does not report free cash flow as a line item. It is constructed here as NOPAT + D&A - change in working capital - capex, the same way for actuals as for forecasts so the comparison stays like-for-like. |
| revenue by division | product_division.{year} | Segment note | reportedFootwear / Apparel / Accessories. adidas does not disclose a price/volume split. |
Assumption register
Click a row for its source and guidance context.
Revenue growth8.0%Medium confidenceLow sensitivity
- Source
- Adidas_Report_2024.pdf, Targets – Results – Outlook
- Guidance context
- adidas FY2025 guidance: “high-single-digit rate” (interpreted as 7–9%)
- Fiscal year
- FY2025
EBITDA margin11.6%Medium confidenceMedium sensitivity
- Source
- Derived, not disclosed — see src/model.py
- Guidance context
- Not disclosed directly — back-solved from operating-profit guidance of €1,700–1,800m at 8% revenue growth
- Fiscal year
- FY2025
Working capital21.5%High confidenceHigh sensitivity
- Source
- Adidas_Report_2024.pdf, Targets – Results – Outlook
- Guidance context
- adidas FY2025 guidance: 21–22% of net sales (actual FY2025: 23.0%)
- Fiscal year
- FY2025
Capex€600mHigh confidenceMedium sensitivity
- Source
- Adidas_Report_2024.pdf, Targets – Results – Outlook
- Guidance context
- adidas FY2025 guidance: around €600m
- Fiscal year
- FY2025
Effective tax rate26.5%Low confidenceNot simulated sensitivity
- Source
- Adidas_Report_2024.pdf, Financial Highlights (FY2024 actual)
- Guidance context
- No FY2025 guidance given — carried forward at FY2024's actual rate (26.5%)
- Fiscal year
- FY2025